Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $215,096$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{255,035.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 82.9)}}\) (asimptote \(255,035.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,130$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,997.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 53.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,997.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,863$ on 2020-06-25

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,788$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(805 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,526.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 91.4)}}\) (asimptote \(43,526.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $339$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(22.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{354.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(354.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,082$ on 2020-06-25

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $193,115$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,932.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(174,932.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,046$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,750.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,750.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,363$ on 2020-06-25

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,081$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(345 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,498.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 114.7)}}\) (asimptote \(40,498.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(0.494 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,509$ on 2020-06-25

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $170,639$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{244,576.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(244,576.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,428$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(37.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,886.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 145.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,886.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,329$ on 2020-06-25

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,838$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,116.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 89.4)}}\) (asimptote \(104,116.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 103.4)}}\) (asimptote \(337.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,188$ on 2020-06-25

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,139$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(31.1 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,437$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(0.513 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,651$ on 2020-06-25

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,400$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,983.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17,983.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $309$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(94.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{293.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(293.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,084$ on 2020-06-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 92%
Turkey recovered 72%
Singapore recovered 71%
Sri Lanka recovered 58%
Qatar recovered 52%
United Arab Emirates recovered 35%
Lebanon recovered 29%
Tajikistan recovered 28%
Bahrain recovered 4%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,600$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,172.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,172.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(57.5 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 17.8)}}\) (asimptote \(116.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $208$ on 2020-06-25

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,736$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,071.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 102.1)}}\) (asimptote \(42,071.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(7.2 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(25.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,106$ on 2020-06-25

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,010$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(197 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,309.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 65.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,309.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.87 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12.6}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 14.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $397$ on 2020-06-25

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,563$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,542.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 87.1)}}\) (asimptote \(49,542.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $308$ on 2020-06-25

Best fit exponential: \(43.1 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{293.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(293.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,090$ on 2020-06-25