Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $215,096$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{255,035.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 82.9)}}\) (asimptote \(255,035.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,130$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,997.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 53.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,997.9\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,863$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,788$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(805 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,526.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 91.4)}}\) (asimptote \(43,526.7\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $339$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(22.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{354.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(354.5\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,082$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $193,115$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,932.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(174,932.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,046$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,750.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,750.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,363$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,081$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(345 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,498.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 114.7)}}\) (asimptote \(40,498.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $71$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(0.494 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,509$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $170,639$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{244,576.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(244,576.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,428$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(37.5 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,886.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 145.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,886.1\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $51,329$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $91,838$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,116.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 89.4)}}\) (asimptote \(104,116.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $106$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 103.4)}}\) (asimptote \(337.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,188$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,139$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(31.1 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,437$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(0.513 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,651$ on 2020-06-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,400$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,983.5}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(17,983.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $309$ on 2020-06-25
Best fit exponential: \(94.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{293.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(293.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,084$ on 2020-06-25